Premier League Betting Tips at OLBG Explained In the first column you can see the overall confidence rating for each EPL tip.This looks at the total win tips on each Premier League match spread across home, away and draw selections. A higher confidence rating than the odds of that team is a good indication of a possible value bet. Commercial content / 18+ / begambleaware.org Let's look at Premier League betting tips and predictions for the upcoming season. All our tips are free and please remember to gamble responsibly.
Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe picks out the best value bets in the overs/unders markets from across the weekend's Premier League and Championship action. Poker free money no deposit 2019.
2 days ago Fulham vs Liverpool betting tips: Premier League preview, 101 Great Goals predictions & betting odds. Match scheduled for December 13, 2020. Betting Tips on the Premier League Top Scorer. This is a fascinating antepost football market which is available throughout the entire EPL campaign, with customers aiming to predict the player(s) that will score the most goals during the course of a season. Premier League Betting Tips at OLBG Explained In the first column you can see the overall confidence rating for each EPL tip.This looks at the total win tips on each Premier League match spread across home, away and draw selections. A higher confidence rating than the odds of that team is a good indication of a possible value bet.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
- Sunday at 14:15 GMT
Crystal Palace picked up a thumping 5-1 win at West Brom last weekend, undoubtedly helped by the hosts being reduced to 10-men with the score at 1-1. They turned on the style though, with the exceptional ball carriers helping Palace break down the deep-lying block.
Casino south side lounge austin. On the whole this season though, Roy Hodgson's side have been below average, posting numbers that show the issues they have at both ends of the pitch (1.3 xGF, 1.6 xGA per game).
However, this game sees them being able to once again play to the style that suits them best: counter-attacking. I see Palace camping in their own half for much of this game, which could pose as a serious problem for Spurs.
Tottenham remain top of the Premier League table after coming through a run of fixtures against Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal with seven points and three clean sheets. Mightily impressive.
Their underlying numbers from those games perfectly show what their approach was, as they mustered a combined 1.2 xGF across the three matches, clearly highlighting how they played on the back foot.
However, it worked, as only Manchester City generated more than 0.9 xG against Jose Mourinho's side, and I expect that defensive solidity to continue at Selhurst Park.
The issue Spurs may have though, is breaking Palace down. They won't be able to operate on the counter-attack in this game, which could lead to them struggling to carve out opportunities, just as they did against West Brom and Burnley (both 1-0 wins).
I like the look of a low-scoring game in this one, so it was pleasantly surprising to see the under 2.5 goals being the outsider on the market.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11
Arsenal v Burnley
- Sunday at 19:15 GMT
Arsenal's defeat to Tottenham in the North London derby once again highlighted the attacking deficiencies of this team, as they dominated the football but couldn't carve out any big chances (xG: TOT 0.3 – 0.7 ARS).
Premier League Odds Tips
That blank means that the Gunners have scored just five times in the last nine Premier League games, winning just one of their last seven, a run that leaves them 15th in the table.
A process of 1.2 xGF and 1.3 xGA per game is concerning, and again shows that Arsenal simply aren't creating the opportunities to be able to score goals and win matches. For perspective, in Arsene Wenger's final season at the club they averaged 1.9 xGF per game.
Burnley represent a similar test to Tottenham given the way they will set up defensively, which could prove a real problem once again for Mikel Arteta.
The Clarets picked up a point at home to Everton last time out, and that means that the only teams to have beaten them in their last seven matches are Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City.
Sean Dyche's side continue to be extremely difficult to break down, shown by the fact that only four teams have conceded fewer non-penalty big chances (35%+) than Burnley (8).
While they don't offer a great attacking threat themselves (0.9 xGF per game), I think they can limit Arsenal here, and once again frustrate them. Under 2.5 goals is the way I'm playing this one.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 5/6
Leicester left it very late to beat Sheffield United last weekend, with Sheffield Wednesday fan Jamie Vardy once again haunting the Blades by scoring the winner (xG: SHU 0.3 – 1.4 LEI).
That win means that the Foxes are still yet to draw this term, but it also kept them in the top four, and in the top six of our xG table. It has been a good start from Brendan Rodgers' side.
In terms of process, they have been slightly above Premier League average, racking up 1.7 xGF per game and allowing 1.5 xGA per game. So, chances at both ends is the norm when the Foxes take to the field.
Brighton are another team who boast a decent process (1.6 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game), but they sit 16th in the table despite their underlying numbers being better than Leicester.
That highlights how unfortunate they have been so far this term, and that was the case again on Monday night as they lost to Southampton, with that controversial penalty proving decisive (xG: BHA 2.0 – 1.4 SOU).
Graham Potter's side tend to play better against better opponents, shown by the fact that they have a process of 1.8 xGF and 1.4 xGA per game against five of the current top six in the Premier League. Leicester sit fourth.
If these sides play to the levels they can, we could be in for a hugely entertaining game here. Also, it is worth pointing out that Leicester (8) and Brighton (5) have been awarded the most penalties in the league this season, while the Seagulls have also conceded five.
All of that means that I like the chances of over 2.5 goals at the King Power.
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 5/6
Wolves v Aston Villa
- Saturday at 12:30 GMT
An intriguing looking West Midlands derby gets the Saturday Premier League action underway, especially as Wolves look to be persisting with their 4-3-3 shift.
It didn't really work last weekend as they went toe-to-toe with Liverpool, losing 4-0 at Anfield, but prior to that the signs were extremely positive that the change in system was making them a more potent attacking side.
They racked up 1.9 xGF against Southampton and 2.3 xGF against Arsenal but have looked more vulnerable defensively across this admittedly small sample size since switching system. Faux ongles impress casino.
Aston Villa will be licking their lips at thought of facing Wolves now, after being frustrated by the stubborn Wolves team of last season, especially as Dean Smith's side are averaging 2.0 xGF per game this term.
Premier League Gambling Tips Against
They sit seventh in our xG table based on xPoints, and that is despite playing two games fewer than most teams in the Premier League, just highlighting how impressive they have been from a data standpoint this season.
Though Villa have lost four of their last five, they have won the xG battle in four of those games, so aren't playing as badly as recent results would suggest.
All of those games have featured over 2.5 goals, and given Wolves' shift to being more attack-minded, I like the look of the over 2.5 again here at a decent price.
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at Evens
Odds correct at 1125 GMT (10/12/20)
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